Video library

Summary: Key takeaways about intuitive eating

What is really driving the markets right now – central banks or geopolitics?

Financial markets are constantly in flux, influenced by a multitude of factors. But what is really driving prices right now? Is it the decisions of central banks or the increasing geopolitical tensions? We spoke with renowned financial expert Zsolt Janos about these questions.

Central banks on standby

Both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have recently left their key interest rates unchanged. Zsolt Janos interprets this as a sign of calm and composure. He warns against knee-jerk reactions and populist measures, advocating instead for waiting to see how things develop. Until recently, interest rate cuts seemed likely, but the events of the last few weeks have changed that picture.

Geopolitical tensions and the price of oil

The past few weeks have been dominated by the conflict in northeastern Iran and the tensions in the country. These developments have had a significant impact on oil prices, as Zsolt Janos emphasizes. Oil affects not only the cost at the pump, but almost every aspect of life. Global daily demand is approximately... 100 million barrelsEven small shifts can lead to major uncertainties.

The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could 20 to 25% This uncertainty is jeopardizing daily oil demand. It is driving oil prices up, as markets anticipate a prolonged conflict. Markets trade not on the current situation, but on future expectations.

The role of the Strait of Hormuz

According to Zsolt Janos, there are voices claiming that Iran has discovered the Strait of Hormuz as a new "atomic bomb" to strongly influence the energy supply worldwide, especially in Asia.

Impact on capital markets

Before the current conflicts, central banks' inflation targets were almost met, and the AI ​​narrative dominated. From a purely economic perspective, the parameters looked quite good. However, the current disruption is leading to a shift in the narrative. The question arises whether the situation is only temporary or will have lasting effects. This uncertainty is currently reflected in the markets.

Recommendations for investors

Zsolt Janos advises investors to be both cautious and to seize opportunities. A clear strategy is crucial at this stage. Avoiding mistakes is more important than seeking out great opportunities. Panic and fear are poor advisors. Portfolio reallocations will lead to new winners. For example, renewable energies and e-mobility could become more attractive again.

Mistakes investors should avoid

A common mistake is to buy into the past or react impulsively. Investors should try to look beyond the current news and consider the bigger picture. It's advisable to gain an overview from a distance.

The role of gold

Gold retains its role as a safe haven. On the one hand, it is important in industry; on the other hand, capital flows into gold during times of crisis. However, it is important to understand that gold, too, can be subject to strong price fluctuations. Its resilience in times of crisis lies in the fact that gold continues to be traded even during crises.

Inflation: What awaits us?

Should the conflict be resolved in the short term, many analysts do not expect sustained inflation. Central banks can combat demand-side inflation with interest rate cuts, but not supply-side inflation. Stagflation—a combination of a stagnant economy and rising prices—is a risk. The longer the conflict lasts, the more pronounced rising prices will become.

Impact on the global economy

The impact on the global economy is currently unpredictable. Many perceive the situation as underestimated. A willingness to compromise is needed to find a solution.

Looking to the future

Zsolt Janos is generally optimistic about the future and trusts in the adaptability of our economic system. Past crises have repeatedly given rise to new solutions, companies, and winners. The world will change, and we should rely on our economic system's ability to solve problems.

Conclusion

Current financial markets are influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions. A clear strategy, prudence, and a willingness to adapt to new circumstances are crucial for investors in these uncertain times.

Important note: The information presented here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be based on individual consultation.