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Gold and silver under pressure: What's behind the price drop?

The Iran conflict is keeping markets on edge. While oil prices are rising, gold and silver are experiencing a significant decline. We spoke with financial expert Zsolt Janos to shed light on the reasons behind this.

Current market situation: A snapshot

Markets are currently reacting very sensitively. Zsolt Janos emphasizes that these strong reactions are not just a recent phenomenon, but began before the weekend. He identifies four key factors driving this development:

• Strong US dollar: In global crises, the dollar is a classic safe-haven currency. An appreciation of the dollar tends to lead to a devaluation of asset classes such as gold.
• Rising interest rates: The expectation of rising interest rates, based on communication from central banks, poses a threat to gold.
• Economic slowdown: The crisis is clouding the economic outlook.
• Uncertainty about the outcome of the conflict: Trump's ultimatum and the prompt reaction from Iran are contributing to the uncertainty.

Short-term shock or long-term reassessment?

The big question is whether this is a short-term shock reaction or a long-term reassessment. Zsolt Janos outlines three possible scenarios:

• A swift end to the crisis: The markets are reverting to old patterns.
• Medium-term duration: Persistent uncertainty, but no serious damage to the economy; return to normal prices.
• Protracted crisis: System adjustments, possibly with Corona-like structures and restrictions due to exploding energy prices.

Energy prices in focus: Is a second energy crisis looming?

Oil prices are particularly in focus. Rumors that fuel prices could rise to €3 are worrying many. Zsolt Janos explains that the problem isn't insufficient production, but rather the vulnerability of supply systems, especially the Strait of Hormuz. Although there are currently no shortages, markets are pricing in expectations, leading to rising prices.

History has shown how sensitive our system is to expensive energy. The oil shocks of the 70s led to inflation of up to 16%. The war in Ukraine also had a major impact. If energy prices remain high, these prices seep into our lives, not only at the gas pump, but also in manufacturing and travel (kerosene prices).

Gold and silver: panic selling or opportunity?

The current price decline in gold and silver is partly due to panic selling. In times of shock, people often sell whatever they can to generate liquidity. Gold is one of the most liquid asset classes worldwide. However, it's important to keep things in perspective: even with the current declines, gold and silver are still up compared to six months, a year, or two years ago.

Important: In the current situation, it is crucial not to panic. Those who have a strategy should seize the opportunities. Those who don't have a strategy should urgently develop one and, if necessary, seek professional support.

Conclusion: Maintain strategy and calmness

The current market situation is characterized by uncertainty. It is important to remain calm, have a strategy, and seek professional help if necessary. Even in difficult times, there are always beneficiaries. A diversified portfolio can help spread risks and profit from positive developments.

Zsolt Janos advises taking a realistic view of the current situation and asking oneself in which areas one should adapt and how.

The most important points summarized:

• The US dollar is getting stronger.
• Interest rates are expected to rise.
• The economic outlook is rather weak.
• Oil prices are rising due to supply fears.
• Gold and silver are often sold during times of crisis to generate liquidity.

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