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In the podcast Reading tea leaves Zsolt Janos discusses daily developments in the capital markets. Complex relationships are explained clearly, comprehensibly, and concisely, drawing on his many years of experience.
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26.03.2026
Shocks test the substance of liquidity in the markets.
We all know: In calm times, the market is like a deep ocean. But when storms arise, the water level drops incredibly fast. Suddenly, the one crucial question arises: liquidityIf everyone runs for the exit at the same time, who's standing on the other side buying? Today we'll look at why uncertain times reveal the unvarnished truth about the markets' ability to buy back shares – and what that means for your portfolio.
The content discussed in this podcast is for general informational purposes ONLY and under no circumstances constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell specific investments, and therefore does not represent investment advice. The presenter cannot assess the risk profile and financial situation of individual listeners. Anyone who decides to buy or sell investment products/assets based on the information discussed in this podcast does so at their own discretion and risk. The presenter therefore cannot accept any liability if you make your own investment decisions based on the information in this podcast and consequently incur losses.
Summary
Shocks test the substance of liquidity in the markets.
Welcome to a new analysis of current capital market and economic issues. Today we examine how shocks test liquidity in the markets and what implications this has for investors.
Trump's influence and the market reaction
Donald Trump's communications continue to have a noticeable impact on the markets. His announcements of a ceasefire in the conflict initially triggered a positive market rally. However, news from Iran quickly dampened this euphoria. This demonstrates that headlines do not always reflect reality, and markets are increasingly learning to critically examine major news stories.
The role of traders and long-term investors
Caution is advised in the current situation. Zsolt Janos emphasizes that sensible traders should currently remain on the sidelines. Market impulses are often unpredictable and difficult to understand. Attempting to make short-term profits here is more akin to gambling. Long-term investors, on the other hand, don't necessarily need to react, as short-term fluctuations are often balanced out in the long run.
Price declines in context
Despite the current uncertainties, share price declines are 8 to 10 percent Such corrections are normal in the major indices within a year. They are part of the ongoing market development. Crucially, however, investors' attitudes have become more measured. While similar situations would have led to significantly larger crashes in the past, investors today react more calmly.
The speed of market movements
Market movements can be extremely rapid. On Monday of this week, the market reversal was so swift that it was almost impossible to enter or exit the market in time. Therefore, it is important not to panic and not to be guided by short-term impulses.
Christine Lagarde and monetary policy
Christine Lagarde also commented on the current situation, emphasizing that monetary policy cannot directly lower energy prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) will only act once changes in energy prices are reflected in core inflation. Currently, however, she sees no immediate need for action.
Jay Powell and the independence of the central bank
In the US, it was decided that Jay Powell was not guilty of any wrongdoing. Nevertheless, the dispute continues, unsettling the markets. It would be desirable for the independence of the Federal Reserve to be respected in order to avoid unnecessarily jeopardizing market stability.
Grains, India and South America: Satellite topics in the portfolio
Questions about grain, the India hype, and opportunities in South America are, from a strategic perspective, more like satellite topics. In a well-positioned portfolio, such niche investments should, at most, constitute a small portion.1-2 percentWhen it comes to grain, it's also important to note that there are various investment options, from physical trading to financial products like ETCs. However, with ETCs, the issuer risk must be taken into account.
Private Credit: Bottlenecks and Risks
The private credit sector continues to experience supply bottlenecks. Even major players like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are affected. While private credit investments often promise high returns, they also carry risks, particularly regarding liquidity and loan quality. Investors should carefully examine what their fund manager is buying and what investments the fund has made. A high proportion of "miscellaneous" assets in the fund's composition can be a warning sign.
Conclusion
The recent market shocks demonstrate the importance of a sound investment strategy and a level-headed approach. Short-term speculation is risky, while long-term investors should remain calm. It is crucial to critically examine the markets, understand the risks, and not be swayed by sensational headlines. Transparency is paramount.
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