Podcast
In the podcast Reading tea leaves Zsolt Janos discusses daily developments in the capital markets. Complex relationships are explained clearly, comprehensibly, and concisely, drawing on his many years of experience.
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30.04.2026
Gold paradox - fear of the crisis is driving down the gold price
Why does gold fall when the world is in crisis? In this episode, we look beyond the headlines of the Iran crisis. We see a new development: gold is losing its status as a mere safe haven and is instead being used as a strategic liquidity reserve. The Gulf states, in particular, are withdrawing cash from the gold market to secure their ability to act without burdening the more important bond markets. We examine why liquidity is now more important than security and how this new market logic works.
The content discussed in this podcast is for general informational purposes ONLY and under no circumstances constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell specific investments, and therefore does not represent investment advice. The presenter cannot assess the risk profile and financial situation of individual listeners. Anyone who decides to buy or sell investment products/assets based on the information discussed in this podcast does so at their own discretion and risk. The presenter therefore cannot accept any liability if you make your own investment decisions based on the information in this podcast and consequently incur losses.
Summary: Key takeaways about intuitive eating
The Gold Paradox: Why fear of crises is driving down the price of gold
The financial markets currently resemble a complex puzzle in which old rules need to be reinterpreted. One of the most striking developments is the so-called Gold ParadoxDespite increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, the price of gold is not showing a typical upward flight, but is even coming under pressure.
Zsolt Janos, a recognized expert in capital market and economic issues, illuminates the multifaceted reasons behind this phenomenon in his current analyses and provides valuable insights into the current market situation.
Geopolitical unrest and its impact on the oil price
The headlines are dominated by geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the Middle East. Reports of possible military action, as hinted at by Donald Trump, have driven up the price of oil – in some cases to $125 per barrelThese speculative price increases are often only short-term, but Zsolt Janos warns: Even if a conflict were quickly resolved, fundamental problems would remain. In many places, inventories are depleted, and replenishment capacities are needed. six to eight weeks, sometimes even up to 16-18 weeksin order to readjust. Stagnant or even increasing demand coupled with limited supply would lead to real price increases that are not so easily influenced by political means.
A look at Hungary: Systemic risks and the lessons for Europe
Zsolt Janos shares his personal observations from Hungary after the elections. He describes a sense of relief in society, but also emphasizes the need to remain vigilant. The slow erosion of democratic structures over 16 years, the corruption, and suspicious money transfers after elections are clear warning signs. Janos recalls conversations in which he encountered fear of open criticism—a concern he knows from the Ceaușescu regime. He stresses the importance of Self-healing powers within the system and the consistent application of EU regulations such as compliance and anti-money laundering measures. These observations underscore the vulnerability of systems and the need for transparency and the rule of law, which are also important for the stability of financial markets.
The gold paradox explained: Why gold falls in times of crisis
The core of the current discussion is the question of why the price of gold is falling despite the escalating crisis. Zsolt Janos explains this based on several factors closely related to the Petrodollar system and are linked to the needs of the Gulf States:
- Petrodollar mechanism: Oil is traded in US dollars. The Gulf states' revenues therefore consist primarily of dollars.
- Bond purchases: Instead of exchanging these dollars for other currencies, the Gulf states traditionally invest in US Treasury bonds. This secures liquidity and generates interest, while the US, in return, guarantees security.
- Supply bottlenecks and liquidity needs: If the Gulf states are unable to supply oil due to conflicts (e.g., in the Strait of Hormuz), they lose out on dollar revenue. However, their expenses remain the same.
- Sale of assets: To remain liquid, they must sell assets. Selling US Treasury bonds would be disastrous for the American financial market. Stock sales are often ineffective due to low trading volumes.
- Gold as a selling option: The remaining option is gold reserves. According to Zsolt Janos, these currently amount to... Central banks and Gulf states, who sell gold to generate liquidity.
- Elimination of the panic signal: Gold typically rises in times of crisis, signaling to investors that the situation is serious. However, if gold falls even as the crisis escalates, this panic signal is suppressed. Small investors see no reason to flee to gold in a panic, which further influences the price.
This complex interplay explains why gold is currently not fulfilling its classic role as a safe haven and is instead coming under selling pressure.
Portfolio strategies in uncertain times: Broad diversification is crucial
Given this volatile market situation, Zsolt Janos' urgent advice for investors in Austria and Germany is: Be broadly positioned! In times of crisis, the primary goal is not to maximize profits, but to secure liquidity. A diversified portfolio allows for the liquidation of positions when necessary without jeopardizing the entire portfolio. Small investors should not be misled by external signals such as the price of gold, but rather pursue a strategy that ensures they have access to their funds at all times.
Tech giants and AI investments: A new market assessment
The world of tech giants is also sending mixed signals. After-hours figures released by companies such as... Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft They showed a veritable "horse race". While Google is making impressive progress with its robo-taxi subsidiary Waymo, the markets are viewing investments in artificial intelligence (AI) more critically.
- Meta (Facebook): Mark Zuckerberg increased the average CapEx investments for the year by 10 billion dollarsWhile this would have been met with jubilation in the past, markets today are asking about the concrete added value and profitability of these expenditures.
- OpenAI vs. Anthropic: The valuation of AI companies is becoming more nuanced. OpenAI, known for ChatGPT, is facing doubts about its profitability. At the same time, its competitor is experiencing... anthropic a massive valuation jump from 350-400 billion to the current 900 billion dollars during its fundraising roadshow. This shows that "AI is not all the same" and that investors are looking closely at which business models are sustainable.
These developments illustrate that investments are being evaluated more critically in the tech industry as well, and that not every expansion is automatically celebrated anymore.
Conclusion: Navigating complex financial waters
Current financial markets are characterized by a complex mix of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and a reassessment of asset classes. The gold paradox is a clear example of how traditional assumptions are being challenged. For investors in Austria and Germany, it is crucial to stay informed, understand the interrelationships, and pursue a robust, diversified portfolio strategy that prioritizes liquidity.
Do you want to optimally position your portfolio in these uncertain times and benefit from professional expertise? Don't hesitate to take advantage of personal wealth management advice.
Schedule a consultation now and secure your assets for the future!
