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In the podcast Reading tea leaves Zsolt Janos discusses daily developments in the capital markets. Complex relationships are explained clearly, comprehensibly, and concisely, drawing on his many years of experience.
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21.05.2026
The silent winners of the AI story
Investment banks are the "shovel sellers" of the AI boom: they earn guaranteed profits, while investors bear the risk. The principle behind it
Guaranteed feesBanks collect 3% to 7% of the stock market volume directly on the day of the IPO.
Success decoupledThe banks celebrate immediately. Whether the stock subsequently crashes doesn't change their fee.
Hype drives profitHigher AI ratings automatically mean larger, multi-million dollar fees for the consultants.
Subsequent transactionsAfter the IPO, banks continue to profit from capital increases and company takeovers.
The content discussed in this podcast is for general informational purposes ONLY and under no circumstances constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell specific investments, and therefore does not represent investment advice. The presenter cannot assess the risk profile and financial situation of individual listeners. Anyone who decides to buy or sell investment products/assets based on the information discussed in this podcast does so at their own discretion and risk. The presenter therefore cannot accept any liability if you make your own investment decisions based on the information in this podcast and consequently incur losses.
Summary: Key takeaways about intuitive eating
The silent winners of the AI story: A capital market analysis with Zsolt Janos
The hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) continues to dominate the financial markets. But beyond the headlines about giants like Nvidia and OpenAI, interesting developments and quiet winners are emerging. In this current capital market analysis, Zsolt Janos examines the latest events and their implications for investors. Austria and Germany.
Nvidia: Growth is normalizing, but challenges lie ahead.
The latest quarterly figures from chip giant Nvidia were once again sensationalThe company significantly exceeded expectations (the so-called "beat and raise") in terms of revenue, profit, and margins. However, the market reaction was surprisingly muted. This suggests that the explosive growth phase in the AI sector is slowly transitioning into a phase of normalization. The "wow" effects are becoming commonplace.
- China market: Nvidia has largely ceded the Chinese market to Huawei, as China is focusing on its own chip development to reduce its dependence on US technology.
- Range of motion: Ahead of the earnings release, options markets anticipated a price fluctuation of +/- 6,5%, which suggested a potential movement of 355 billion USD in one direction or the other would have corresponded – a Total range of USD 700 billionThis is a value that corresponds to the entire IPO of some companies.
- Financing issues: Increasingly, critical questions regarding accounting practices and financing structures are coming into focus. In particular, the role of companies like CoreWeave, a subsidiary for chip purchasing and distribution, raises questions about unsold chips and loan guarantees. Further details are expected to emerge as the figures are analyzed more thoroughly.
OpenAI and the IPO race: High expectations and old ghosts
After Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed (albeit with an appeal), Sam Altman is pushing for an IPO. Rumors suggest the application for the listing could be submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission as early as this week, with a potential IPO in September.
- Race with SpaceX: OpenAI's move can also be seen as a direct race with SpaceX, whose IPO prospectus is also awaited. A battle of the giants for the favor of the capital market.
- Softbank's concerns: A major early investor, Softbank, raised concerns reminiscent of the WeWork bankruptcy. WeWork went public with an expected valuation of nearly $50 billion, plummeted to $9 billion, and ultimately went bankrupt. This experience dampens the euphoria and highlights the risks associated with inflated valuations.
- Contest: Besides Elon Musk, Anthropic is also a strong competitor that is rapidly gaining ground. The move of former Tesla AI chief and OpenAI founder Andrej Karpathy to Anthropic underscores the intense battle for top AI talent and market share.
In total, the planned capital valuations of the IPOs targeted for this year in the AI sector amount to over 3,5 trillion USDEven if only parts of it are actually floated on the stock exchange, this capital requirement must first be absorbed by the market.
The real beneficiaries: Investment banks in the AI boom
Regardless of how the IPOs of OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic develop, the biggest winners are already clear – the big ones. Investment banksThey accompany these mega-IPOs as lead managers and earn substantial profits.
- Prominent actors: Goldman Sachs is the lead investor in SpaceX and OpenAI. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan Chase are also active in this area.
- JP Morgan's European offensive: JP Morgan is also expanding into Europe, which is attracting increased attention from European bankers, as the US giant brings a new competitive dynamic with its size and experience.
Geopolitical signals and market sentiment
Beyond the AI hype, geopolitical developments also influence the markets:
- US-Iran negotiations: Rumors of a "final phase" of negotiations between the US and Iran, confirmed by Donald Trump, led to a decline in government bond yields. This demonstrates how sensitive the market is to signals of easing tensions and how much it yearns for stability.
- Liquidity and interest rates: Zsolt Janos emphasizes the critical importance of Market liquidity and interest rate developmentsRising interest rates and a drain on liquidity are like "draining air" from the market – a persistent condition that will inevitably have consequences. Capital markets can put you under pressure.
Creative corruption and political staging
The podcast also addresses the ongoing "creative corruption" at the highest levels, exemplified by Donald Trump's financial transactions. The release of his bank statements showed Over 40 stock trades per day in the first quarter of 2026, sometimes shortly before important corporate announcements. Particularly relevant is the case of Trump's lawsuit against the US Treasury Department over the release of his tax returns and the subsequent out-of-court settlement, in which $1,8 billion in taxpayer money The fact that the money is to be channeled into a foundation and that Trump's tax returns are to become untouchable in the future raises serious questions about the integrity of political processes.
AI in everyday life: An indispensable tool, not a replacement
Finally, Zsolt Janos looks at the role of AI in the workplace. It will likely be a very long time before AI systems can operate completely autonomously. Compliance regulations will ensure that the ultimate decision-making power rests with the human being. This remains true. However, AI tools will increasingly accelerate preliminary work and increase efficiency. Companies can thus benefit from accelerated preparation, while the final strategy and implementation require human expertise.
And finally ... AI will not replace humans, but People who master AI systems will outperform those who do not. Development is progressing week by week, and it is crucial to stay on top of things in order to remain competitive.
Conclusion and outlook for investors
The AI Revolution The process is in full swing, but the market is maturing. While the direct beneficiaries of chip manufacturing and platforms remain in focus, indirect players such as investment banks are also gaining enormously. Investors should critically examine these developments, scrutinize financing structures, and not disregard the geopolitical and liquidity-related conditions. The ability to meaningfully integrate new technologies like AI into one's daily work is increasingly becoming a crucial competitive advantage, both for companies and for individuals who want to enhance their skills. Asset management and Financial planning want to optimize.
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