Podcast

Summary: Key takeaways about intuitive eating

Good morning and welcome to a new look at current capital market and economic issues. 27. April As we begin the last week of April, recent developments demonstrate once again how crucial it is for investors to clearly separate emotions from investment strategies. Those who allow themselves to be unsettled by the constant flood of news and act emotionally often pay a high price. We are currently observing a complete decoupling the financial markets from the sometimes opaque geopolitical news.

Geopolitical turmoil and market ignorance

The geopolitical situation, particularly surrounding the Iran conflict, is characterized by a flood of reports whose veracity is often difficult to verify. One example of this was the alleged report from Pakistan about a second round of talks between Iran and the US, which quickly proved to be false. "Duck" turned out that although an Iranian delegation traveled to Pakistan, their actual destination was Russia, and the US delegation with Kushner and Witkov – who have no decision-making authority anyway – were not involved at all. Important decision-makers such as J.D. Vance They were completely absent. Such reports, which can change hourly, demonstrate how pointless it is to base one's investment strategy on them.

The price of emotional investment decisions

The past two months have shown that investors fleeing an emotionally charged situation and selling their investments are facing a very high price pay. For example, anyone who, after the initial price declines at 28. February He panicked, pulled the ripcord, and fled into short-term money market positions, missing the following opportunity. very strong rebound lasting over three to four weeksThese investors are now either stuck in their positions and playing catch-up with developments, or remain uncertain. The global economy's problem-solving capacity is immense, and it is not designed to stand still, but rather to constantly reassess and adapt.

Corporate profits as the engine of the markets

The main reason for the strength of the markets lies in the actual company profits, which are exceptionally strong this quarter. While hopes for a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions play a role, the fundamental figures are the decisive factor:

• Im fourth quarter of 2025 Average corporate profits were at 13 percent, significantly above expectations 7 percent.
• For the first quarter of 2026 Expectations are at 12 to 13 percent, and the figures reported so far are gigantic.
• Until the end of last week, 27 percent is S & P 500 Companies reported their figures. Of these, more than 86 percent the analysts' estimates, on average by 13 percent exceeding already high expectations.

This week will include 181 companiesCompanies that publish their figures are particularly busy. On Wednesday alone, we expect reports from heavyweights such as... Microsoft, Qualcomm, Amazon, Google, KLA and Meta.

The AI ​​boom and the semiconductor rally

A central theme remains the AI UniverseThe semiconductor sector is experiencing an unprecedented rally:

• We have 18 consecutive days of rising stock prices In the semiconductor sector, this is a historic record, surpassing the previous longest period of 15 days.
• The price increase during this period is over 40 percent, while the historically strongest rally was 9 percent in 10 days.

A prime example is Nvidia, whose market value the The $5 trillion mark has been surpassed. has – that's twice as much as the entire German market. Also IntelLong considered dead, it has undergone an impressive transformation. With a profit of 29 cents per share The price exploded on Friday alone, compared to an expected 1 cent. 30 percent, even though it had already increased by 300 percent previously. The transformation in the area of ​​data centers and AI applications is a clear success.

In addition to the tech giants, companies like [list of companies] are also reporting this week. GM, Coca-Cola, UPS, T-Mobile, Visa, GE Health, Ford, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Linde and Estée Lauder their numbers, crowned by Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday. While many of these companies are not directly active in the AI ​​sector, they are increasingly using AI solutions as a tool, highlighting the breadth of the technology's application.

Market breadth, liquidity, and the pitfalls of forecasting

The current market situation with its sometimes thin liquidity is interpreted differently: Some see it as a positive sign of a widening market breadth, while others view the low liquidity as a basis for sudden price crashes in the event of bad news.

The difficulty of making predictions is strikingly illustrated by the example of Intel. Although analysts like those at Bank of America (Price target raised from $48 to $58, but still "Sell") or JP Morgan (increased from $35 to $45) revised their price targets upwards; the current price is at 82 dollars. Even the CitiGroup They raised their price target from $48 to $95. This illustrates how late analysts often react to developments and how significant the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) The fear of missing out can drive markets when everyone is chasing a rally. Such "flagpole" developments, as seen in the past with gold or silver, are corrected sooner or later.

Conclusion: Discipline is the key to success.

The lesson learned from these turbulent times is always the same: For investors, it makes the most sense to... clear and well-thought-out strategy to have and to implement them consistently. Regardless of geopolitical headlines, tweets from Trump Whether it's short-term business figures or sticking to your own established strategy, it's crucial. Emotional reactions rarely lead to relaxation and calm, but usually to additional anxiety and poor decisions.

With that in mind, we wish you a successful start to the week. For further insights and in-depth analysis, listen to our podcast again tomorrow.

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