Podcast

Welcome to a new edition dedicated to current capital market and economic issues – clearly explained by Zsolt Janos. This week presents itself as a "quasi-normal," yet extremely interesting period, marked by important decisions and news. The upcoming IPO of SpaceX and the role of key investors like Google are particularly in focus. But as always, the capital markets are... Solid facts are more important than fleeting feelings..

Current market developments in focus: ECB, inflation and the interest rate outlook

The financial world is watching the coming days with bated breath. Several important announcements and decisions are pending, which will be of great significance to investors in Austria and Germany:

• Inflation reports: Fresh inflation data is expected from almost all regions, which will provide information about price developments and can significantly influence monetary policy.
• ECB meeting: The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its meeting this week. Zsolt Janos expressed hope that the ECB would not raise interest rates further, as this would not solve the underlying problems but could put additional strain on the economy. However, the Euribor rates There is already an upward trend, which often anticipates the ECB's decision. Christine Lagarde's decision on Thursday is eagerly awaited.

SpaceX IPO: More than just hype?

Another highlight this week is SpaceX's planned IPO on Friday. With an issue price of [unspecified] $135 per share Elon Musk's company is attracting a lot of attention. But while the hype surrounding SpaceX rages, there's a quiet winner in the background:

• Google's early investment: Google's parent company, Alphabet, has been around since 2015 A key investor in SpaceX. Google invested at that time. $ 900 million at an early stage. This involvement, which is around 7 percent SpaceX's assets, which make up the company's total value, are likely to be worth approximately [amount] following the IPO. 126 billion Dollar To achieve that. An impressive increase in value from 900 million to 126 billion US dollars!
• Market mechanisms: The American stock market reacted proactively: The Standard & Poor's Index and Dow Jones Index We will not immediately include SpaceX stock in our portfolio. This is a positive measure to prevent an artificial overheating of the price at the beginning. Only the Nasdaq Composite will absorb the stock, which should still generate capital inflows.

Google's quiet successes: Anthropic and the power of early investments

SpaceX is not Google's only success in the area of ​​early-stage investments. The investment in the AI ​​company Anthropic is also developing extremely promisingly.

• Google holds a stake in 14 percent an Anthropic.
• The original value of this stake was 1,3 billion Dollar and should have changed in the meantime more than tenfold to have.
• The situation is similar with Microsoft's investment in OpenAI. Although the euphoria surrounding ChatGPT boosted Microsoft's share price, it shows that a single investment is not enough to keep a share price consistently high; other macroeconomic factors often override this effect.

Financial literacy: An often neglected foundation

The discussion surrounding complex financial products and IPOs inevitably leads to the question of financial literacy. Zsolt Janos shares his personal experience and emphasizes the need for better financial knowledge education:

• Lack of practical relevance: Although some financial terms are touched upon in school, practical application is often lacking. Zsolt Janos recalls his university days, when he encountered terms such as... Annuity, amortization and interest He found it difficult to assign a loan because he lacked the practical context.
• The “young species” of investor: The concept of saving and investing is historically relatively recent. For centuries, earned money was primarily used for one's own craft or direct consumption. Only with the development of global trade and more complex economic systems did the possibility arise to participate in and profit from the work of others.

The roots of the capital market: From ship investments to the modern stock exchange

The evolution of investing is closely linked to the development of trade and information exchange:

• Early risk investments: The first "investments" were often stakes in ship deliveries from distant countries. The risk was extremely high, as information about the captain, pirate attacks, or even embezzlement was lacking. The less information available, the higher the risk for the investor.
• The origins of stock exchanges: Unlike traditional marketplaces where goods are traded directly, the stock exchange originated as a place for trading rights and property securities. The first stock exchanges developed around 1469 in Bruges and later in Antwerp. The term "Börse" (stock exchange) is said to have originated with the family. van der Buerse originated in whose house the merchants met. Later, foundations followed in Amsterdam (1602) and Frankfort (1585) – always where important trade flows converged.

Pricing and Information Quality: Lessons for Investors

The principles of pricing and the importance of information are timeless:

• Supply and demand: A price is only "right" if a buyer is willing to pay it. If a seller is under pressure or has high fixed costs, they will be more likely to lower their price. This principle is also crucial for investors, who need to understand the cost structures and operational pressures of companies.
• The power of information: Early banking families like the Rothschilds or companies like Thurn and TaxisThose who operated postal stations recognized the paramount importance of fast and reliable information. In times without modern communication, messengers and a far-reaching network were crucial for accurately assessing the outcome of wars, for example, for bond investments.
• Regulation as a response to excesses: Today's regulations against Insider trading and Frontrunning These are direct reactions to the excesses and crisis profiteering that have arisen in unregulated markets. They are intended to ensure greater transparency and fairness.

The most important question when investing remains: How good is the quality of my information? It is not advisable to buy products based solely on a "hot tip" without having thoroughly informed yourself and questioned the tipster's motives.

Conclusion: Well-founded decisions instead of gut decisions

Whether it's the hype surrounding an IPO like SpaceX, interest rate trends, or the valuation of investments: the capital market is a complex system where emotions often lead to costly mistakes. The history of stock markets and personal experiences with financial education show that comprehensive knowledge, critical information gathering, and an understanding of basic market mechanisms are essential. Only in this way can sound decisions be made that will lead to financial success sooner or later.

Your path to informed financial decisions

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