Podcast
In the podcast Reading tea leaves Zsolt Janos discusses daily developments in the capital markets. Complex relationships are explained clearly, comprehensibly, and concisely, drawing on his many years of experience.
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15.04.2026
The paradox of silence - the next FOMO is born
When the news is bleak, uncertainty reaches its peak due to unexpected events, and the general mood is at rock bottom – that's precisely when the foundation for the next big rally is laid. We know that unexpected shocks lead to panic. But while we as individuals are still trying to emotionally process the news, the markets have long since absorbed the new facts. Historically, periods of extremely negative sentiment have often been the best. ContraindicationsWhile the investor is still hesitating, the market has already priced in the risk – and before you know it, the skepticism transforms into the next wave of... FOMO, the fear of missing out.
The content discussed in this podcast is for general informational purposes ONLY and under no circumstances constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell specific investments, and therefore does not represent investment advice. The presenter cannot assess the risk profile and financial situation of individual listeners. Anyone who decides to buy or sell investment products/assets based on the information discussed in this podcast does so at their own discretion and risk. The presenter therefore cannot accept any liability if you make your own investment decisions based on the information in this podcast and consequently incur losses.
Summary: Key takeaways about intuitive eating
The Paradox of Silence - The Next FOMO is Born
It's fascinating to observe how, quietly and amidst uncertainty, the fear of missing out (FOMO) quickly resurfaces. FOMO arises when market participants miss a movement and feel they are missing an opportunity.
The paralysis caused by headlines
The constant focus on current headlines and the feeling that the past is no longer relevant paralyzes many people. The first reflex is often to withdraw and wait until things calm down. But the markets don't wait. They immediately price in future expectations.
The wisdom of the markets
Is that a guarantee? Of course not. But markets don't just take headlines into account; they also consider many other developments and factors. The market is the sum of all investors. Rising prices don't mean everyone is convinced, but rather that only a few percentage points more are trending in a particular direction.
There will never be 100% certainty, neither in optimistic nor in pessimistic phases. Reality lies somewhere in between.
Volatility and automated trading models
In uncertain times, trading volumes are often low. Automated trust-based investment schemes (CTAs), primarily active in the US, exit the market as soon as volatility increases. Volatility has risen sharply: the lowest value was recorded on 26. January reached where the volatility index is at 55,7 lay MOVE Index then exploded 115 and has thus doubled. Now volatility is falling again, which means the return of these models and therefore volume to the markets.
Historical patterns in geopolitical escalations
JP Morgan has examined how the Standard & Poor's Index has reacted to escalations in the Middle East. Since 1939, statistics show that the market has priced in such shocks after about two weeks. This is, of course, no guarantee, but it provides a guideline. In the current case, it took approximately... 22-23 days It took a little longer until the S&P Index turned around, and then rose extremely sharply.
The current situation is similar to the surprise a year ago when Donald Trump imposed tariffs. Sentiment turned negative, and stock prices fell sharply. But such negative sentiment often leads to market overreactions.
Global trade routes in focus
Straits are playing an increasingly important role. Besides the Panama Canal and Venezuela, the Strait of Hormuz is now coming into focus. 38% Approximately 1% of the total volume of cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for China. 70-75% Chinese needs are met via this route. The Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait are also important.
Markets currently expect an agreement between the US and Iran. Two critical issues need to be resolved: the nuclear question and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to extract concessions.
A senior director at the Port of Los Angeles said that for every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it takes three times as long to restore normal supply chains. Since the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for six weeks, it will take at least 18 weeks to return to normal.
The US elections in November are approaching. Donald Trump may be speculating on an opportunity if oil prices fall, as elections are often decided at the gas pump and in stock portfolios.
Conclusion
The current situation is complex and influenced by many factors. Markets are dynamic and quickly price in future expectations. It is important to closely monitor developments and not be swayed by headlines or short-term sentiment. Zsolt Janos's analysis shows that historical patterns and the importance of global trade routes are key aspects to consider when making investment decisions.
Politicians who oppose Trump are uniting more and more people behind them.
With these thoughts in mind, we will go into the next few days and observe how the banks' announcements continue.
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