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Summary: Key takeaways about intuitive eating

Sam Altman's $850 billion bet: Is OpenAI the new WeWork? A financial analysis

Good morning, dear investors! On 29. April Let's look back on an eventful day in the capital markets. While major tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google present their quarterly figures and the Fed meeting is eagerly anticipated, one topic is particularly in focus: the ambitious, but potentially risky, bet by Sam Altman and OpenAI. Guest expert Zsolt Janos It highlights the parallels to a well-known disaster in recent economic history: WeWork.

Markets before the storm: A look at April 29th

Today promises to be a veritable firework display of news. Besides the eagerly awaited figures from tech heavyweights like... Microsoft, Qualcomm, Amazon, Google, KLA and MetaThe Fed meeting is scheduled for this evening. Rumor has it that this will be the last appearance of [name omitted]. Jay Powell in its current form, with possible decisions for a transition to Kevin WalshAll these events could significantly influence the markets and provide grounds for further discussion.

Geopolitical tensions and the oil market: A brief overview

Although current geopolitical developments in the Gulf region and the associated oil issues are complex and deeply rooted in history – from the Roosevelt-era until the role of Henry Kissinger and the question about that Strait of Hormuz We won't dwell on that too long today. However, the recent news of the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC shows that global energy structures remain in flux and have far-reaching strategic implications.

AI boom or bubble? The debate surrounding artificial intelligence

A recent in Wall Street Journal A recently published article raised the question of whether artificial intelligence (AI) could be a bubble. Share prices in the semiconductor and AI sectors have risen dramatically in recent weeks. One example is the development of... Intel, whose price is approximately 20 dollars up to mid-last year 90 dollars exploded – a parabolic development that surpasses even the dot-com bubble of 2000.

But is AI itself a bubble? Zsolt Janos argues clearly: “AI itself is not a bubble, but what develops around AI in individual business models can be a bubble.“He draws a comparison to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Technological development itself is not a bubble, but certain business models built upon it, such as those of... Michael saylor, could be pyramid schemes or bubbles.

Sam Altman's OpenAI: An $850 billion vision

In this context, plans OpenAIThe company behind ChatGPT plans to go public later this year. CEO Sam altman is vigorously pursuing this ambition, but is under considerable pressure. Competitors such as anthropic with their model Claude as well Elon Musks XAI (Through a merger with SpaceX) are also pushing into the market. The stock market currently seems to have more confidence in Google and the cloud universe than in the OpenAI funding round, which is backed by investors like Oracle, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

WeWork: A case study in exaggerated visions

To better understand the risks of Altman's bet, it's worth taking a look at the history of... WeWorkThe company offered flexible coworking spaces by renting or buying office space and subletting it at higher prices. This business model fueled the real estate market, as developers were able to achieve high prices.

• In the year 2019 WeWork had 650 locations cost worldwide.
• The planned IPO should achieve a valuation of approximately 50 billion dollars achieve.
• The largest investor, Softbank, had 11 billion dollars invested pre-market.
• In fact, WeWork started with a valuation of only 9 billion dollars to the stock exchange.
• In the year 2023 WeWork had to file for bankruptcy.

The vision of flexibility clashed with the aggressive cost structures and was further complicated by the COVID pandemic.

The parallels to OpenAI: A dangerous gamble?

The similarities between WeWork and the current situation at OpenAI are striking. Sam altman He is investing heavily in data centers and AI capabilities, often with funds he doesn't yet possess. This, similar to what WeWork did in the real estate sector, is driving up prices for data center developers. Such projects were also planned in Europe, for example in Vienna, but often failed due to a lack of infrastructure such as high-voltage power lines.

The Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI He has already expressed concerns about potential overinvestment and questioned whether an IPO is ideal at this time. An IPO requires brutal transparency, which is often replaced by "stories" in the pre-market phase. Softbank, the main victim at WeWork, has once again invested heavily in OpenAI after the company's Nvidia-investments had been reduced. The latest news made the Softbank shares plunge by 13 percent.

Während Sam altman OpenAI received a rating of up to 750 to 800 billion dollars – so almost one trillion dollars – is strongly reminiscent of the inflated expectations before the WeWork debacle.

System relevance and global dependencies

OpenAI's "bet" could have far-reaching consequences. Should the AI ​​narrative, and especially the exaggerated structures built upon it, fall apart, up to... nine of the world's ten largest companies affected, as they are all involved in some way in the tech, semiconductor and AI sectors.

This dependency is also reflected in national indices:

• In Taiwan is the index to 44 percent of Taiwan Semiconductors (TSMC) dependent.
• In South Korea dominate Samsung and SK Hynix the index.
• In the Netherlands it´s ASML.
• Even in the broader US market, one third The companies in the index are all attributable to the entire AI, tech and semiconductor sector.

Conclusion for investors: Avoid flying blind

The WeWork story and the recent developments surrounding OpenAI serve as a cautionary tale for all investors. It's crucial not to blindly follow trends, but to thoroughly understand the mechanisms behind pricing. What narrative is being sold? How sustainable is the vision? And how does management handle costs?

The risk is that, in anticipation of future high valuations (the "exit"), cost structures will be inflated excessively. If this "exit story" fails, retroactive costs cannot be reduced, which can quickly lead to over-indebtedness.

The topic of AI, technology, and the associated assessments will certainly continue to occupy us in the coming months and years. Critical analysis is essential.

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